Florida Housing Market

2024 Florida Housing Market: The Outlook IS Brighter!

What do you anticipate needing for success in your 2024 real estate investment plan?

Whether you are anxious about fluctuating mortgage rates or just beginning your real estate investment portfolio, sources including real estate coach Tom Ferry, founder of Tom Ferry International, confirm “The smart agents stopped complaining about the market a while ago and are focused on action for today’s market reality.”

Today, we’re going to look at key areas of focus regarding 2024 real estate market predictions. While experts may have conflicting opinions about the status of the national real estate market, one thing is for certain: Florida is still a hotspot in the real estate marketplace.

The current market is putting out around 20,000 new units per year, but the demand is closer to 200,000.

Interest Rates

Mortgage interest rates are on the rise and have been since mid-2021. During the pandemic, we saw record-low rates of 2.65%, which led to an influx of buyers and a crowded marketplace.

Higher rates mean fewer people are willing to buy. Buyers could refinance in a couple years, but we can’t know for sure if the rates will lower by then and some may be wary to take that chance.

This affects all parts of the marketplace from investors to buyers. The only area where the mortgage rate increase doesn’t have as much of an effect is the luxury sector. Many sales in the luxury market are paid in cash, so rates aren’t as much of an issue.

If you’re an investor relying on low mortgage rates, you may want to rethink your strategy and figure out how you can pay cash. You don’t want to be paying loads of interest each month on a property that might not be immediately profitable

Purchase Prices

Purchase prices are also returning to a level of normalcy within the market after their pandemic rise. According to data collected by Redfin, home prices in Florida are up by 3% from this time last year. 

Some of you may remember the average price year-over-year differences between 2019, 2020, and 2021 that spanned around $150,000. Those price leaps appear to be behind us.

As of October 2023, the average home price in Florida is $403,700 with a median of 44 days on the market. Now, this average price and days on the market may differ depending on which area of Florida you are located.

The bottom line is no matter what metro you are in, the average prices are leveling out and trending toward small positive increases.

Four Florida metros rank in the top 10 areas within the U.S.

Demographics and Market Demand

The population in Florida is growing. After an initial peak when remote workers moved at the start of the pandemic, numbers continue to rise. 

The midyear report given by the National Demographic Estimating Conference states a projected annual population growth in Florida of nearly 300,000 per year. That works out to 817 new Florida residents per day. 

While the population of homeowners is growing in part due to migration, a large part is also attributed to the next generation (Gen-Z and Millennials) looking to purchase their own homes and investment properties.

“Nationally, the number of households headed by 25- to 34-year-olds is growing much faster than other age ranges,” according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University.

For some heads of households, they may be working on a real estate investment plan or simply buying their first property. Either way, market demand is way higher than what’s out there.

The current market is putting out around 20,000 new units per year, but the demand is closer to 200,000. That’s a sizable gap, which means the rental industry should remain strong since there simply aren’t enough homes out there to keep up with market demand.

Recent U.S. Census data analyzed by the Tampa Bay Times reveals that recent population growth has been concentrated in large metro areas, including Orange, Hillsboro, Lee, Polk, and Palm Beach Counties.

With so many individuals moving to Florida, some are bringing along their businesses, which means more jobs for Floridians. The growth potential of those jobs leading to more homeowners could continue to expand year after year.

Whether you’re looking to purchase your first home, grow your investment portfolio, or leverage your real estate career, now is the time.

What Emerging Trends Tell Us

The real estate market is leveling out. While there still may be some peaks and valleys ahead, the extreme ups and downs in the market we’ve seen over the last five years are receding into memory.

While nobody has a crystal ball that can see into the future, including me, experts are projecting a period of steady growth for Florida in 2024.

As one of the hottest destinations for homeowners, more people will plant roots here rather than the more expensive markets in the Northeast and West. 

Hottest Locales

Four Florida metros rank in the top 10 areas within the U.S., including Orlando, Sarasota, Cape Coral, and Tampa.

Net Inflow

  • Orlando – 3,700
  • Sarasota – 3,600
  • Cape Coral – 3,400
  • Tampa – 2,800

While these Florida cities are claiming new residents, not a single Florida city is listed in the top 10 areas within the U.S. losing residents. On that list, you’ll find cities in the West, East, and Midwest.

Florida Year-over-Year Statistics

For those of you who want to skip right to the numbers, check out these collected figures below for October 2023 statistics on Florida real estate trends according to Redfin.

  • Median Home Sale Price – $403,700 (+3%)
  • Number of Homes Sold – 28,595 (-5.8%)
  • Median Days on Market – 44 (+4) 
  • Number of Homes for Sale – 151,156 (+7.4%)
  • Number of Newly Listed Homes – 42,543 (+16.3%)
  • Months of Supply – 4 (+0)
  • Homes Sold Above List Price – 13.4% (-2.4 pt)
  • Homes with Price Drops – 31.2% (+1.0 pt)
  • Sale to List Price – 97.2% (-0.23 pt)

Planning Ahead

While signs point to a leveling of the market, experts also recommend getting started now. Whether you’re looking to purchase your first homegrow your investment portfolio, or leverage your real estate career, now is the time. Returning to the opening quote by Tom Ferry, focusing on action in today’s reality is the difference between would-be realtors/investors and realtors/investors who are building up their portfolios and achieving financial success.

So, don’t wait, and don’t worry. At least, not too much. All market indicators are pointing in promising directions for a profitable and somewhat predictable 2024.

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Gina Soldano

Gina Soldano

Gina Soldano is a professional writer with seven years of experience writing online. She has written articles, blog posts, social media copy, email marketing, and ghostwritten for others on a wide range of topics including writing, health, real estate, and more.

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